Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/Detroit Tigers Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

I don’t trust either starting pitcher here, or either team’s entire pitching staff for that matter, and I think it results in runs again tonight. After 13 runs last night against starting pitchers I’d consider more trustworthy, I’m encouraged by where these offenses stand. Chicago’s in particular, as the Cubs have continued to be strong offensively after some record scoring earlier this month. They can get to Reese Olson without much issue as the rookie has struggled now that tape exists on him at the big league level.

But the Tigers are definitely feisty at the plate themselves, averaging 4.5 runs per game over their past 15 games. They’re much more effective against lefties, and will see a struggling lefty starter today as the Cubs give Drew Smyly another start. Smyly was banished to the bullpen after a string of blowups where he posted a 9.00 ERA in 8 starts, and all the left-handed bats Detroit can send up should continue his struggles in that split. A very shaky bullpen for Chicago should only help scoring opportunities, and this one should be an easy over.

MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:05 PM CT on YES

First of all, what business do the Yankees have being nearly a two dollar favorite against anyone? That just goes to show you what kind of impact perception and brand names have on the market. The key is that it’s widening the team total split and bringing down the number for Washington, creating a perfect opportunity.

The Nationals against lefties is something you always have to look to exploit, as they’re 5th in scoring and 1st in weighted runs created for that split. It also helps that the lefty starter is a struggling one, as Carlos Rodon goes again for the Pinstripes. With a 7.33 ERA since his return to the rotation and 4 of the 6 opponents going over this total, Rodon’s issues should allow the Nats to get over this very low isolated total.

Bonus Bet (0.6 Unit) Washington Nationals +1.5 (-120; Odds via BetMGM)

The Yankees are very loudly and publicly playing terrible baseball, but the Nats are very quietly playing some good baseball. Washington is 12-6 in August, and if they were in the same division as the Yankees would only be 3.5 games back in the standings. The line here is reflective of perception like I mentioned above, not the reality of New York’s 5-13 record this month or 1-5 record when Rodon starts, so I’m backing the sneaky underdog here.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Nationals/Yankees Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Let’s not forget there are two struggling starters taking the mound in this game. Josiah Gray has also been in rough form lately, posting an 11.12 ERA and 2.03 ERA in August. Those starts are unsurprisingly 3-0 over this total, so even with the struggling Yankees involved I’m seeing plenty of runs tonight overall.

MLB (0.65 Unit) LA Dodgers -1.5 @ Cleveland Guardians (-130; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports GL

I just don’t see how the Dodgers do anything short of light up Noah Syndergaard in this game. They know exactly why they traded him, what his weaknesses are, and how to attack him with their elite lineup. Since the Guardians were duped into acquiring him, they’re 1-3 both straight up and on the run line in his starts, getting outscored by a combined 24-13 margin.

And I don’t see the Cleveland bats doing much today either against Bobby Miller. The rookie righty has been finding his groove again after a couple of rough outings, posting a 1.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this month. Those 3 starts have seen the Dodgers go 3-0 on the run line, where LA has been profitable all season long. The juice here is getting excessive, but this is a mismatch in just about every area and I see the Dodgers running away with it.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings ML @ LA Angels (+115; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network

Cincinnati will send out Graham Ashcraft again today, and while the overall team results haven’t been great, Ashcraft certainly has. The Reds righty has just a 2.17 ERA in his past 9 outings, recording a quality start in 8 of those, and posting advanced metrics in Stuff+ that tie him for the best in baseball. Yet the Reds are just 4-5 in those games as the bullpen keeps blowing leads, losing 3 of them in the 9th inning or later.

Cincy is 6-1-2 on the first 5 innings moneyline during that stretch though, and I like their chances to take another early lead here. Ashcraft in his current form certainly gives the Reds an edge over LA starter Lucas Giolito, who has not been sharp since the Angels traded for him. With this Angels team circling the drain in general, an excellent pitcher should slow them down again at least early on.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers/Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on MLB Network

This Rangers team is on a significant skid, losing 5 in a row that they can ill afford with their division race tightening. It’s mostly been due to their offense cooling off, and I think the bats stay icy today against Zac Gallen.

The Arizona ace has been rolling this month with a 2.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts. The first five inning under is 4-0 in that stretch, and Gallen has given up just a single run in the first five innings of those games. Plus, Gallen has been absolutely elite at home this year, posting a 1.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .204 opponent batting average.

The Diamondbacks haven’t provided much run support for Gallen though, and I don’t see them doing much early here either. Jon Gray for Texas has been excellent on the road this year with a 2.76 ERA and .208 opponent batting average. These teams were scoreless after five innings last night, and I could see more of the same given the strong starters here.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Las Vegas Aces -15.5 @ Atlanta Dream (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Injuries are piling up for this poor Atlanta team that now has to face a refocused Aces squad. The Dream have 3 starters likely to miss this game including their two leading scorers Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. Things were already a little rough offensively for Atlanta who has averaged just 75.1 PPG their past 10 and 73.2 their past 5 games.

I just don’t see how they keep up with Las Vegas here, as the Aces have had no trouble scoring at will on Atlanta in the first 3 meetings this season. The Aces are coming off a fairly predictable loss in a flat spot on Saturday, but should be back up to speed in this game. They always bounce back well too, going 3-1 ATS after a loss and beating the spread by 7.4 points on average. They’ve taken a ton of smart money on the injury news for Atlanta, and I think we see a typical Aces runaway tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Atlanta Dream Team Total Under 75.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Combine Atlanta’s scoring issues with their injuries, plus the fact that Las Vegas has been turning up the defense lately, and I don’t see the Dream reaching this level tonight. Atlanta has had a healthy roster for all 3 meetings this season and averaged just 74.7 points against the Aces, so I don’t think the reserves will have much success against the league’s second-best scoring defense.

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 87.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Twitter

The Lynx have shown all season that they’re a pace-taking team, not a squad that will determine the tempo of a game. That means their defense is likely in trouble against the fastest-paced team in the league as Dallas visits tonight. The Wings have been in some wild games lately as a result of that pace, and have scored 90.7 PPG in their past 12 games with a 9-3 over mark to this team total.

They’ve also tormented the Lynx this season, dropping 94 and 107 on them in the previous meetings. Only Dallas and Las Vegas have reached 94 points against Minnesota this season, and I think the Wings light up the Target Center scoreboard again tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1455-1295 ATS (+68.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.